Russians know that without the Polish NATO will not defend or the Baltic states, or even yourself.


Putin will give the Chinese to play as a child. He left an idiot, with well aware. The Russian president is in a difficult situation, it just makes it all the more dangerous

In Warsaw, it was held last week computer simulation of modern armed conflict, under the name Hegemon – Baltic Campaign, with the participation of former NATO commanders. It was preparedjointly by the two think tanks: Polish Foundation. Casimir Pulaski and the US Potomac Foundation.What was the purpose of this war game?

The simulation was played scenario-based exercises Zapad 2013 contains some changes, which followed through summits of NATO in Newport and in Warsaw – strengthening the forces of NATO on the eastern flank, and so that the Russians have to change the structure of its armed forces and take this into account in their plans. Russia moved 20 army to the south, on the border of Belarus and Ukraine and recreated Guards Panzer Army. This is to dissuade Poland from a possible defense of the Baltic states, in case they were attacked by the Russian Army 6. I’m curious how it will be played by the Russians during the exercise Zapad 2017 this summer.

Russians know that without the Polish NATO will not defend or the Baltic states, or even yourself

The aim of the simulation was therefore help to build understanding of the nature of military threat from Russia, whose victims can fall Baltic states and Poland. The Baltic States and Sweden for some time already use the platform hegemon Baltic States Simulation to determine the structure of forces and defense planning necessary to counter the plans of the Russian General Staff.

Among some experts, Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian, there is a belief that the Baltic states can not actually defend. That incorrect assessment?

I do not think that the defense of the Baltic states was impossible. On the contrary, but it requires a strategy put forward defense, which is proper preparation and planning. The area to defend located on both sides of the border. Russians access to the territory of NATO would be so limited. The area on the side of the Baltic states is easy to defend. So the Russians might use only a small part of their forces. If these areas have been successfully defended, defeating the Russian army would be possible.

There is also the issue of the isthmus of Suwalki. This combination of Polish Baltic states, or with the rest of NATO.

Yes. A lot is said about it, but I think the strategic advantages of the isthmus are overrated. It’s a bit like in the case of the isthmus Fulda during the Cold War. Everybody then kept talking about it. At that time, the Soviets probably would carry out the attack, which we expect, as the Russians have done it today, because they want us to think that we understand their intentions. They want to catch us in certain places, stop us in them to be able to turn surround the others. I’m not going to argue, I admit there between Warsaw and Tallinn line of communication, long 1000 kilometers. It is vulnerable to attack, without a doubt, its narrowest point is located at the isthmus of Suwalki. However, it is easy to defend the area. With the appropriate forces, Poland may hold an effective defensive.

Plock and Torun is a city that Russians have to deal with, because they are on the right elevated bank of the Vistula River and defend the bridges

The question of whether Poland has such forces. We are not a large professional army and began the creation of territorial defense. It’s enough?

I am not a supporter of the idea of conversion of the Polish crew cut, according to the rules of each their village. To deter the enemy, you need to thwart his plans, not to defeat its armed forces. So what do the Russians have? They have to go around the Polish army in the north-eastern quadrant of the country.Warsaw must be directly threatened attack. This means that Russians must cross the Bug, Narew and the Vistula River. There are places where it is easier these rivers przestąpić and those where it is more difficult.Take the lower section of the river. Plock and Torun is a city that Russians need to take care of, because they are on the right elevated bank of the Vistula River and defend the bridges. If they fail to do so, the Poles will be able to use these bridges to carry out a counterattack.

Russians today probably would carry out the attack, which we expect, because they want us to think that we understand their intentions

Minister Macierewicz idea to create something like the National Guard, if it will, of course, well equipped and trained, it is good. It can in fact convert these cities, after the evacuation of the population, fortresses, defended without problems for many weeks – much longer than they are able to withstand the Russians. The National Guard could also toiling rebuilding air bases. In this way zdjęłaby some of the burden from the regular forces. You could also draw from the reserve forces. People like me can drive a bulldozer or repair the airfield. Generals like flashy toys, they want to have more cutting-edge aircraft, tanks. First, however, you should think about what is the nature of the threat: what the Russians need to be able to achieve? Only then should think about what equipment we need to be able to thwart their plans. This is an effective deterrent.

You’re talking here about a conventional war. How do you believe that the Russians will advance to the Polish and Baltic states as well as to Ukraine? The more that they do not go there as well. They stuck in Donbas. For nearly a decade we are witnessing the Russian blackmail, concerning the use of nuclear weapons against Poland. In 2015. The Russians simulated nuclear attack on Warsaw and Stockholm. And what if the Russians follow through on their threats? I mean the point of impact ..

It’s a very good question. Putin has a vision to create an empire, which is performed by a new generation of warfare. This is a total of nine different tools. The ninth is the threat of use of nuclear weapons, but its use!This should be clearly emphasized. The Russian General Staff has a serious problem: if Putin wplącze Russia in the war, we must also consider how to bring to completion. How to persuade the West to stop fighting? I do not think the Russian General Staff conducted exercises Zapad because he wants to win Poland or the Baltic states. I think the reason is to look for a way to persuade the West to stop fighting, if it chooses the open use of force against Russia.

Russia has come to the conclusion that should convince Poles to ensure that they did not fight and do not let the Americans use its territory

Russians know that without the Polish NATO will not defend or the Baltic states, or even yourself. Therefore, they focus on it. In 2009 they carried out a simulation of tactical nuclear strikes on bridges on the Vistula.They isolate the battlefield. To isolate the theater of war, simulated nuclear attacks at the same time to Atlantic ports in the United States. They used to cruise missiles, fired the long-range aviation. They wanted to show that it is not about the strategic exchange with the United States. This caused a great stir in Washington. Everyone wondered: how can they think that if will use nuclear weapons against us, we do not answer the same?

But is not the point. We know what they want, even they drew a map showing the territories have indicated that they want to win. It’s no secret. However, considering the script ending the war, you must find a way for it to complete in order to begin negotiations. So the Russians did in the case of Crimea. First, it took, and then declared that they are willing to use nuclear weapons to defend their prey.

Well, it turned out to be effective. West tail between his legs, and today we hear from the mouth of French and German politicians, that in principle, the Crimea has always been Russian and Ukraine should be reconciled with the loss. Why in the case of Polish or Baltic countries would be different?Nobody wants war, especially nuclear, Russia …

During exercise in 2009, the Russians tried scenario where France and Germany refuse to comply with the obligations arising from Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. NATO, however, clearly declared at the top in Wales and Warsaw, that it intends to defend both the Polish and Baltic countries. Russia has therefore come to the conclusion that should convince Poles to ensure that they did not fight and do not let the Americans use of their territory. Therefore recreated Guards Panzer Army, as a direct threat to Warsaw.

The Russians must understand that if Guards Tank Army arrives in Polish, here and die, and lose Kaliningrad

My biggest worry is that Russia may take Belarus. Then Guards Tank Army will be on the Polish border, and it will change everything. We must reflect on what we can do to ensure the sovereignty of Belarus. Surely we can not defend it militarily, but we can apply sanctions against Russia, but this time not post factum, as in the case of Ukraine and limited in time, only way ahead and steady. The exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system, which is an international network for the exchange of information between banks, would be a powerful shock to its economy. Without SWIFT trade would be paralyzed, which in turn would lead to an economic blockade of Moscow. This would mean the collapse of the Russian elite. People Putin.

You could do this a long time ago. The EU was considering such a step, but ultimately decided on him.

Many Western countries have invested in Russia, it carries with it the business. Such sanctions are not in their interest. However, we should remain on this issue hard. Exclusion from the SWIFT system should be automatic in the case of seizure of Belarus by Russia. Only the possibility of a return to the SWIFT system should be the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus and the restoration of its sovereignty. We’re not fans of Lukashenko. We do not think that Belarus is a democratic state, and we know that the elections in this country are not free. However, the Belarusians will never have neither one nor the other – neither democracy nor free elections, if they lose sovereignty. The Russians must understand that either will play according to international rules, or they will have to suffer the consequences. The choice is one and only one. It’s the best thing we can do for international security.

Trump is of course entitled to their own opinion. It must, however, have much to learn before you will be an effective president

The Russians must also understand that if Guards Tank Army arrives in Polish, here and die, and lose Kaliningrad. That is certain and not subject to negotiation. In the simulation, which is conducted in Warsaw, initially inspired by the Kremlin coup in Belarus, the result of which Lukashenko will be removed from power. They start rule forces completely loyal to the Kremlin. Then supporter of Moscow invites Russian troops. Kremlin starts to use Belarus as a base for hybrid acts against Poland and the Baltic States. We can not allow this to happen.

This requires a high degree of commitment on the part of Washington. Stance towards the Kremlin.Meanwhile, the new US president Donald Trump seeks dialogue with Russia. This does not bode well for the future …

I do not agree with this assessment. Trump is of course entitled to their own opinion, but it has a lot to learn before you will be an effective president. The choice of James Mattis to the US Secretary of Defense, however, a very wise decision, which shows that a change in direction will not, if at all happens, so clear.Mattis is not a friend of the Kremlin, on the contrary.

Trump for much sharpened rhetoric towards China, at a time when the situation in the South China Sea has become increasingly tense. The return on the Pacific end to the war? And if Russia can be a bargaining chip in this game?

Russia not only can be, but there is a trump card in this game, but not the US, but China. That Beijing is using Russia. Putin signed a deal with Chinese energy, who give him money to build the infrastructure to be able to supply oil and gas to China. What’s in it for Russia? Little. The main, largest recipient and at the same time paying for Russian gas is Europe, not China. The Chinese enjoyed most difficult to accept Moscow’s conditions, but the Ukrainian crisis, tension in relations with the West and becoming weaker position on the EU market have prompted Moscow to go on concessions. In short: it is a very bad deal.

Once the Chinese army during military exercises being held in the Urals.Now stops in Kazan

And even worse: the construction of transmission infrastructure is opening the Chinese access to the very heart of Russia. This infrastructure, the Chinese armed forces could use in the future to invade Russia. Once the Chinese army during military exercises being held in the Urals, now stop in Kazan. In the Russian army, there are two groups: people like Shoigu, who opt for a political alliance with Beijing, and Russian generals, who think it’s the dumbest idea in the world. One of them told me that the biggest problem that the Chinese will have with the Russian army is not whether they will be able to overcome it, but whether it will be able to find it. They know that we are not a threat to them. West is not going to attack them. With the Chinese may be different.

Chinese rozstawili the border with Russia in the north-eastern part of the country’s ballistic missiles Dongfeng-41, having a range of up to 15 thousand. kilometers. The Kremlin has declared that it does not feel threatened. Whom are they so targeted? IN USA?

They can be aimed at both the US and Russia. We know that Beijing has consulted the Kremlin on the pre-emptive nuclear strike in the United States, urging Russia to an aggressive attitude – let the Russians will fire rockets, then we can comfortably tilted back in his chair and do nothing. Putin will give the Chinese to play as a child. He went idiot and knows it. The Russian president is in a difficult situation, it just makes it all the more dangerous.

Russians know that the West is not going to attack them. With the Chinese may be different

We tried to help Russia after the Cold War. We have spent hundreds of millions of dollars that the Russians could clean up the nuclear mess left over from the Soviet period. However, they spent the money on the reinforcement and modernization of the army, to have us then attack.

Not this time. We do not make that mistake a second time. We are at war with Russia, because it is at war with us. People do not seem to understand. One of the tools of war a new generation of information is war, and this war against Russia takes us a long time. We saw this during the elections in the US and see also the upcoming elections in France and Germany.

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